Betting Jake Paul Over Chávez: The Numbers, the Narrative, the Play
A Kalshi Market Analysis
Introduction
Promotional Image of Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | Source
After a seven-month hiatus from Boxing, Jake Paul is set to face off against established fighter Julio Cesar Chavez Jr this Saturday - making it his first boxing match since his famous win against Mike Tyson.
The scheduled 10-round cruiserweight tournament has many wondering if Jake Paul is getting yet another win under his belt this Saturday.
Kalshi Market
Kalshi - (4:40 PM CST)
At nearly $40,000, The Kalshi market is sizable for a one-off boxing match. And, despite Chavez Jr. being arguably the strongest opponent Jake Paul has ever had to face, the market seems very partial towards Jake Paul. Why?
Intermediary - Anderson Silva
Overlayed images of Anderson Silva fighting against both Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | Source
Anderson Silva was a renowned MMA fighter before transitioning into Boxing in 2021, and he notably fought both Paul and Chavez.
Image of Anderson Silva vs Cesar Chavez Jr. (2021) | Source
Chavez Jr. fought Silva early in his career. Anderson Silva won that match in a split decision despite being the much less experienced fighter.
Image from Paul vs Silva (2022) | Source
In 2022, Jake Paul got his shot against Silva and was able to win with a knockdown in the final round and a unanimous decision.
While this was three years ago, If Silva > Chavez Jr. and Paul > Silva, then:
Paul >> Chavez Jr.
Fight math isn’t always accurate, but it’s a good measure of rankings.
Chavez Jr. - The older Star
Jake Paul is often ridiculed online for his track record of only taking on past-their-prime athletes. This match looks no different. Paul is 28 and Chavez Jr. is 39.
Additionally, Chavez Jr. has only fought one time since 2021. And he won the middleweight world championship in 2011. It’s been about half a decade since Chavez Jr. has had serious action in boxing.
Whereas Jake Paul is coming in with a strong streak after beating Mike Tyson.
Conclusion - Jake Paul wins again
Jake Paul seems poised to win.
Bet YES on him on Kalshi for a swift ~ 20% gain.
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