Kalshi House of Representatives Markets - Pacific Coast
A Kalshi Market Analysis
Introduction
Image of the 119th Congress | Source
For most Americans, it’s too early to think about the house of representative’s elections - which are scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. However, Kalshi released a large number of markets today for individual districts - asking which party will win the district? These early markets present a cornucopia of opportunities for the patient investor. Most people vote for the same party throughout their ticket, so it’s fair to say that - apart from heated elections - representative elections are fairly easy to predict. Coupled with the 3.5% interest Kalshi offers, there are many early good, if long dated deals for someone looking to deposit money and forget about it.
I want to analyze several of these markets to find any mispriced markets and good deals. For sanity’s sake, I will only analyze some markets from the pacific States of Washington, Oregan, California, and Alaska for now.
Washington
8th Congressional District - (78% D | 18% R)
Washington’s 8th congressional district is a mix rural - suburban swing district. It includes of the affluent exurbs of the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area and the sprawling wooded lands of Cascadia. It is predominantly White and affluent.
It has voted for democratic representatives since the 2018 midterm, at first with narrow margins that steadily increased in favor of the Democrats. The momentum is towards the democrats in this district, and it would be smart to be on the Democrats for a 20% gain.
3rd Congressional District - (78% D | 18% R)
Washington’s 3rd congressional District is situated just north of Portland, OR, and is just south of Olympia. It is on average White and Middle Income. It includes the city of Vancouver, WA and sparsely populated towns with lush forests in between.
The district became democrat in 2022 with narrow margin and held democrat in 2024 with a wider margin. Just like in district 8, the momentum is towards the Democrats. I would bet YES on the Democrats for a 20% gain
Oregon
5th Congressional District - (68% D | 28% R)
Oregan’s district 5 covers the southern suburbs of Portland and large swaths of land with tiny towns in between. The area is vastly White with varying levels of income.
It’s a political wild card. After being a long-time blue stronghold, it flipped Republican in 2022. It then went through a process of being redrawn and then flipped back to Democrat hands. It is known as Oregon’s most evenly split district, which is why I would personally avoid this market entirely. It’s just too unpredictable.
California
3rd Congressional District - (71% R | 27% D)
The third congressional district of California is a very long district containing both the Death Valley desert to its south and lush forestry to the north. It’s also containing the eastern suburbs of Sacramento.
California’s third district underwent redistricting in 2022, which extended it southward. This change only includes more republican core areas of California, and it seems likely that this district will vote republican if the 2024 10-point margin is to go by.
I would recommend betting YES on Republican for this district for a 30% gain.
9th Congressional district - (65% D | 30% R)
The 9th congressional district includes the entire city of Stockton and tiny surrounding cities. It is plurality Hispanic with smaller White and Asian communities.
This district is typically democrat, but in the 2024 election, the democrat incumbent only won by a slim margin of 3%. It would appear that This likely coincides with the nationwide Republican shift in 2024 which was very pronounced among Hispanic Americans. This is why the odds on Kalshi reflect market uncertainty.
However, conventional wisdom holds that the non-presidential party (democrats in 2026) tend to gain house seats in midterms. If Republicans weren’t able to flip the seat in 2024, then I don’t think they will flip it in 2026.
I would bet YES on the Democrats for a potential 40% gain.
22nd Congressional District - (56% R | 46% D)
California’s 22nd District includes several smaller towns with the addition of the eastern half of Bakersfield.
It is currently represented by David Valadao who has made the news several times in the past for his moderate republicanism and symbolic resistance to Trump. Regardless, this is a fairly republican district, and it is severely underpriced at 56%.
I would recommend betting YES on Republicans for a near 50% gain.