NYC Mayoral Race - Exciting Opportunities for tommorow.
A Kalshi Re-exploration
The heated New York City race has left a city of 8 million holding their breaths. About a month ago, I released a video on my thoughts about the mayoral primary election, where I recommended Andrew Cuomo.
Back then, I recommended Andrew Cuomo because of his appeal to demographics that are underreported in polls and less present online. The odds then were 80:20 for Cuomo and Zohran - Now, they’re closer to 50:50.
This is in large part due to a growing momentum and presence of Zohran Mamdani. There is a lot more volume in this market now and many newer traders have eagerly casted their bets on Zohran Mamdani. Newer polls seem to show a narrowing margin of victory, with one forecasting a win for Mamdani.
Kalshi and Polymarket traders have flocked towards Zohran Mamdani. However, I don’t think the thesis has changed at all it just got trickier. The election has turned into more of a toss-up.
In this article, I will analyze the demographics and conditions awaiting the NYC democratic mayoral race tomorrow and who may be winning. Spoiler: I think it’s going to still be Andrew Cuomo.
Demographics
It’s no secret that Mamdani’s energy has reached a widespread audience, while Cuomo has stayed more or less where he’s began. Emerson’s June poll presents the most widespread and recent polling taking into consideration New Yorks’s ranked choice voting system - assigning victory to Mamdani. According to that poll, Mamdani is leading the early voting by a sizeable 10% margin - which has exceeded existing polls.
However, it all comes down to voting day turnout, which is determined to be favorable for Andrew Cuomo due to the demographics that he is winning in and his name recognition. This analysis will come straight from the Emerson poll.
Young vs. Old
This election appears to be sharply young vs old. The average new yorker is 38 years old. Voters under 50 are voting by great margin for Zohran. The younger crowd leans towards Mamdani due to his online presence and far progressive values. While candidates older than 50 lean towards Cuomo for his name recognition.
Many on Kalshi have pointed out the NYC heatwave, which is set to have its hottest day tomorrow on Election Day, could dissuade older vote. However, I wouldn’t look too into it as people tend to find any way to vote.
College Educated vs No College
There is a sharp divide among those with 4-year university degrees and those without. Cuomo leads with those without a college degree 60:40, while Mamdani wins 60:40 with the college educated.
Racial Demographics
NYC is a very diverse city, and Race is a major divider in this election - with certain races skewing a certain way.
Cuomo has a clear advantage among Black and Hispanic voters, with a nearly 60:40 advantage among these demographics.
Whereas Mamdani is a clear winner among White and Asian voters with a 60:40 majority among White Voters and an overwhelming 80:20 for Asian voters.
Conclusion
It all comes out to voter turnout. If Cuomo is able to summon a great voter turnout tomorrow - primarily among older and minority groups - he is a shoo-in for the election. But if his election day performance ends up lackluster, it seems Mamdani has good odds of cinching the election. It’s all a tossup, I am still holding onto my Yes on Cuomo contracts, but I can see the case for Mamdani’s win. Only time will tell for sure.