Smurfs (2025) - Rotten Tomatoes Market. 30% gain.
A Kalshi Market analysis
Introduction
![Smurfs [2025] - IGN](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F-Oy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4aa46a1-9e8b-43bd-aa50-18206672c39e_1024x1024.jpeg "Smurfs [2025] - IGN")
A new Smurf’s movie is set for release this Friday, July 18th, and it’s looking pretty rough.
Screenshot taken from Smurfs (2025) Trailer
A large portion of the movie’s marketing has been centered around Rihanna’s role as Smurfette. Rihanna also will be debuting a new song in this movie.
No seriously, I couldn’t find any other draw for this movie. It’s banking entirely on the existing Smurf IP and Rihanna’s celebrity.
Screenshot taken from Smurfs (2025) Trailer
According to the trailer, the movie is going to follow a cliche plot of Smurfs entering the real world - which is almost identical to The Smurfs (2011).
Most commentators - including Kalshi traders - are forecasting a massive flop.
The Kalshi Market
Market (7/14/2025 - 8:15 PM CST)
The Kalshi Market forecasts a 26.6 - putting it well into rotten territory.
Kalshi gives 60% odds that the movie will cross 25 in rotten tomatoes score, and only 6% for it being fresh.
But is this analysis correct?
A Mediocre, but decent movie.
This movie is going to be directed by Chris Miller, who is the credited director of Puss in Boots (2011) and Shrek the Third (2007) - 86% and 41% respectively on rotten tomatoes. This is to say the director has a track record of delivering at least mediocre movies.
On rotten tomatoes, there is currently one critic review from Grame Tuckett of The Post NZ. Traders on Kalshi have taken this to be a sign that the movie isn’t entirely horrible. You can read his full review here. But it is only one review and should be taken with a grain of salt.
The history of this franchise hasn’t been great. The first three Smurf movies have scored between 14 and 41. This film could either be good and completely reverse course for the franchise or just be another shallow abomination.
It is worth noting that this movie takes on a different, more cartoonish animation style from the previous movies - which has been met with mixed, but somewhat positive reviews online.
The Play
This film is probably not going to do well, but Kalshi has underpriced its performance. I predict this movie is going to land in the 25-40 range.
As such, I think YES for above 15 and above 20 are good plays - netting 20% and 30% gains respectively.